Before we go to the detailed explanation of the whole text, let's examine three economic terms.
1． Inflation(通货膨胀):
"Inflation" refers to a rise in the general level of prices caused by an excess of demand over supply and related to an increase in the supply of money, both as bank-notes and in the form of bank credit. Inflation is usually measured by calculating the rate of increase in prices during a stated period such as a month or year.
由需求超过供应而引起的，且与货币供应量的增长（既是纸币量的增长又是银行信贷的增长）有关的一般物价水平的上涨。通货膨胀通常是在规定时期，例如一个月或一年中通过计算物价的增长率来测量的。
2. Recession（衰退）：
Recession is a temporary reduction in business activity, not as severe as a depression. A recession is generally taken as existing when the gross national product (GNP) has fallen for two or more quarters after allowing for inflation.
商业活动的暂时减少，但没有萧条那么严重。在考虑到通货膨胀因素后，国民生产总值连续两个季度或更长时间下降，一般认为是出现衰退。
3. Economic expansion（经济膨胀）：
Economic expansion means the growing phase within the cycle, a prolonged upturn. In this phase, there is an increase in output, investment, employment and inflation.
经济膨胀期指的是经济周期中的持续上升阶段。在这一时期，生产、投资和就业及通货膨胀都有所上升。
From these definitions, you can probably understand the title of the text----Economic Ups and Downs, which vividly presents the full picture of business cycles.
本课文由两部分组成：第一部分Inflation and Recession和第二部分Prosperity and Depression。两个部分都与商业周期，也就是经济的沉浮息息相关，但是又各有侧重点。下面就是详细的提纲：
I. Inflation and Recession
1. the concept of inflation (the 1st paragraph)
2. the concept of recession (the 2nd paragraph)
3. the effect of inflation (the 3rd paragraph)
Ⅱ.Prosperity and Depression
1. the concept of business cycle--changes in business conditions (paragraph 1--3)
2. business cycle in writers' eyes (paragraph 4)
3. characteristics of business cycle—its length and irregularity (paragraph 5-6)
4. the nature of business cycle—one economic problem (paragraph 7)
After examining the skeleton of the whole text, let's go to the detailed analysis of the text.
Now, let's start with the first paragraph:
Even economists can't agree on the hows and whys of inflation. The most common explanation is that inflation is caused by a money supply that expands too rapidly. This so-called easy money or loose money policy creates a situation, economists say, where there's too much spending money and not enough goods and services on which to spend it all. In other words, supply is lower than demand. The result? As consumers compete for limited goods, prices escalate.
即使在经济学家中间，对通货膨胀是如何以及为何发生这一问题也没有一致的看法。最通常的解释是，通货膨胀是由于货币供应增加过快而导致的。经济学家们说，这种所谓的缓和或松散货币政策造成这样一种局面：可供花费的货币过多，但却没有足够的可用于花费的商品和服务。换句话说，供应量低于需求量。其结果如何呢？由于消费者竞购有限的商品，价格快速上涨。
Let's examine the language points in the paragraph:
1) Even economists can't agree on the hows and whys of inflation.
In this sentence, two points deserve our examination. The first one is the commonly used phrase—agree on. 下面我们复习一下agree的介词搭配。介词on 在这里表示"就某一问题上"。其他的搭配有"agree with", "agree about" 以及"agree to"。
If we have the same opinion as someone else, we agree with them. Also we can agree with their attitude, ideas, plans, rules etc or an activity or principle. "agree with"可译为"同意...的意见; 与...一致; 对...适合"。
We agree with people on or about other matters. 可译为"就...达成协议; 就...取得一致意见"。
If we decide on or arrange to do something after discussing it with others, we agree on it.
If we accept something, especially something that was not our idea and perhaps we do not like it, we agree to it. We can also agree to do something. 可译为"同意某事或同意做某事"。
Let's look at some examples:
---Do you agree with him/what he said? （你同意他的看法吗？）
---The liquor did not agree with me. （这酒不适合我喝。）
---I agree with you on this issue. （我在这一问题上与你意见一致。）
---We finally agreed on a solution. （我们最终统一了解决方式。）
---She finally agreed to the solution. （她最终接受了这一解决方式。）
---We all agreed that the plan was a good one. （我们一致认为这个计划很好。）
The second point in the first sentence is the usage of hows and whys. 单词how，why原是疑问代词，在这里活用为名词，意为"做事的方式和原因"。
在下面的例句中，what也被活用为名词。
For example:
In written communication, HOW controls the feeling content of a message, while WHAT controls the subject content.
- 在书面沟通中，表达的内容决定了主题，而表述的方式则决定了传递信息的感情色彩。
2）The most common explanation is that inflation is caused by a money supply that expands too rapidly.
最通常的解释是，通货膨胀是由于货币供应增加过快而导致的。
In this sentence, there are two that-clauses. 第一个that是指示代词，引导名词性从句作表语，因此不可以省略，也不能用which来代替。第二个that是关系代词，引导的是限制性定语从句，因此可以用which来代替，但是不可以省略，因为that在从句中作主语。that的第二个用法在其他情况下可以与其他词交替使用，例如：
The lady that/who is speaking at the meeting is our dean.
Is this the driver that/whom you talked about yesterday? 这是昨天你提到的那位司机吗？
The letter that/which I received yesterday was from my brother.
在以下两种情况下一般都用that引导定语从句：
●先行词为序数词或者是形容词最高级所修饰时，例如：
The first English novel that I read was A Tale of Two Cities.
●先行词为all、everything、nothing、something、anything等不定代词时，例如：
Everything that we saw at the Industrial Exhibition greatly interested us.
3）This so-called easy money or loose money policy creates a situation, economists say, where there's too much spending money and not enough goods and services on which to spend it all.
短语easy money or loose money policy指的是"放松银根政策或放宽信贷政策"。If this policy is adopted, in the money market money is said to be cheap when it is easy to borrow at low rates of interest, usually because the minimum lending rate is low.
采用这种政策时，在货币市场上，通常因为最低贷款利率降低，所以当容易按低利率借到钱时，就可以称这种借款是低息的。所以cheap money 即低息资金或低息贷款，与easy money同义。
在这句话中，where引导的从句是限制性定语从句，修饰 "situation"。在这个分句中, 短语"on which to spend it all"用来修饰"goods and services"，可以用一个整句来代替，即"on which we can spend all the money"。
有一点需要特别注意，就是这里的"spending"是一个动名词，因为它表示用途，"用于花费的"，类似的例子有a sleeping car（卧铺车）。
4）In other words, supply is lower than demand. The result? As consumers compete for limited goods, prices escalate.
换句话说，供应量低于需求量。其结果如何呢？由于消费者竞购有限的商品，价格快速上涨。
"In other words" is a set phrase, which is used to express an idea or opinion in a way that is easier to understand.
For example:
这家公司宣称它不得不使劳动力合理化，换句话说，就是许多员工将要失去他们的工作。
"The result?" is a sentence fragment which expresses the same meaning as "what is the result?"
Compete的介词搭配通常是"compete with somebody for something"，"与某人竞争某种东西"。另外，还可以说"compete to do something"。
For example:
--- They found themselves competing with foreign companies for a share of the market.
--- Several advertising agencies are competing fiercely to get the contract.
The word "escalate" means "become higher" while referring to prices or costs, or "become much worse" while referring to fighting, violence or any unpleasant situation. Its noun form is "escalation."
For example:
---They do not want the fighting to escalate into a full-scale civil war.
---The escalation in the production cost leads to the rise of prices.
In the first paragraph, we can find the reason of inflation, as well as a general description of what will happen during this period.
Then what is recession? Let's go to the second paragraph.
Recession is not as easy to spot as inflation. In inflationary times, you can actually see the prices of products rising. Recessions, however, are much more amorphous. In fact, the best definition of a recession is a downturn in economic activity, indicated by two consecutive drops in the quarterly GNP figures. That is not the kind of occurrence which you are likely to observe very easily in your day-to-day life.
衰退则不像通货膨胀那样容易被发现。在通货膨胀时期，你可以确实看到产品价格的上涨。然而，经济衰退则显得更加扑朔迷离。事实上， GNP（国民生产总值）指标连续两个季度下降即表明经济活动在走下坡路，这也就是经济衰退的最好的定义。然而，这种现象并不是你在日常生活中可以轻易观察到的。
5）Let's discuss the second paragraph in detail:
Recession is not as easy to spot as inflation.
衰退则不像通货膨胀那样容易被发现。
The basic sentence structure here is "not as…as", which is contrary to "as…as". "Not as (so)…as"中文可译为"不及…"，而 "as …as"表示"和…一样地…"。此处的形容词不用比较级而用原级，连词用as而不用that。
For example:
---He is as energetic as a young sportsman. 他象年青运动员那样精力充沛。
---My handwriting is not as (so) good as yours. 我的字不及你的字漂亮。
Although "recession" is the object (宾语) of "spot", we need not use the passive voice, "to be spotted", since we can express the same meaning this way---To spot recession is not as easy to spot inflation.
6)In inflationary times, you can actually see the prices of products rising.
在通货膨胀时期，你可以确实看到产品价格的上涨。
Inflationary是inflation的形容词形式，表示 "relating to or causing price increases","与通货膨胀有关的或倾向于导致通货膨胀的"。
For example:
inflationary prices （暴涨的价格）
inflationary policies（导致通货膨胀的政策）
inflationary spiral （通货、物价、工资等的螺旋型膨胀）
7) Recessions, however, are much more amorphous.
然而，经济衰退则显得更加扑朔迷离。
In this sentence there is only one adjective that deserves our further attention---amorphous. "Amorphous" is a formal expression meaning "having no definite shape or features"（不定形的）, which is quite similar to shapeless. Sometimes it can also be used in its figurative sense meaning "lack of organization".有时候也可以用它的比喻意，即"缺乏组织的，乱七八糟的"。
For example:
an amorphous mass of twisted metal 一块扭曲了的无定形的金属
I really can't understand his amorphous ideas. 我真的弄不懂他那些乱七八糟的想法。
8) In fact, the best definition of a recession is a downturn in economic activity, indicated by two consecutive drops in the quarterly GNP figures.
Downturn是一个名词，由副词down和动词turn构成，表示"下转和下降趋势"，类似的构成还有downcast（俯视、没落），downcome（下降、衰落），downthrow（地表陷落、声誉低落、垮台）等等。
"Indicate" is a verb used in various situations. Four cases are given in the examples below.
- an arrow indicating north
（indicate＝point out；指示北方的箭头，）
The cracking and booming of the ice indicate a change of temperature。
（indicate＝signify，serve as a sign；冰层破裂时轰轰作响显示了温度的变化。)
The symptoms indicate immediate surgery.
（indicate＝suggest the necessity；症状表明急需外科手术）
indicate his wishes in a letter
（indicate＝state briefly；信上简要地表达了他的意愿）
In this sentence, "indicate" is used in its second meaning--- serve as a sign, symptom, or token of; signify. Thus, "two consecutive drops in the quarterly GNP figures" is the sign of the coming of recession.
Consecutive 意思是 "following one after another without interruption; successive",可译为"连续不断的、连贯的"。
For instance：
It rained for four consecutive days. （连续下了四天雨。）
consecutive account of the accident （事件的顺序叙述）
GNP is the initialism (首字母缩略词) of "gross national product", 国民生产总值, while GDP is that of gross domestic product, 国内生产总值. In economic theory, GNP is the total wealth earned or brought into existence in a particular year by a country (一个国家在某特定年份中赚得的或实现的总财富), while GDP is that part of the gross national product remaining after taking away the country's net income from abroad （国民生产总值在扣除国家从外国取得的净收益后剩下的部分）.
9) That is not the kind of occurrence which you are likely to observe very easily in your day-to-day life.
然而，这种现象并不是你在日常生活中可以轻易观察到的。
"Occurrence" is the noun form of "occur", which means "something that happens or the fact of something happening".
For example,
Below is the comparison made among the words "occurrence, happening, event, incident, episode and circumstance". These nouns all refer to something that takes place or comes to pass. 这些词都含有"事件"的意思。
●"Occurrence" and "happening" are the most general words. Occurrence 和happening是常用词, 指"任何发生的事件"，
for instance:
an unforeseen occurrence 预料不到的事
a happening of no great importance 无关紧要的事情
●"Event" usually signifies a notable occurrence，指"有重要意义的历史事件"、"重大事件"，
Look at the following sentence:
Graduation from university is an event in life. （大学毕业是人生中的大事。）
●"Incident" may apply to a minor occurrence，指"事件", 尤指"比较不重要的小事件"，
For instance:
●"Episode" is an incident in the course of a progression or within a larger sequence. "episode" 是在某一事物的发生过程中或在更大的进程中的事情，
For example：
Happiness was but the occasional episode in a general drama of pain. ---Thomas Hardy
In this sentence, "be likely to" expresses the idea of certain possibility. However, we can never use "somebody is possible to do something". The right expression for "possible" is "it is possible for somebody to do something" or "it is possible that".
This is the end of the second paragraph, in which the author gives us the best definition of recession and the measure to spot it. Can you fully understand?
Ok! Let's go on with the next paragraph, in which effects of inflation on us are given.
In fact, inflation is good for debtors. In inflationary times, earning the $1,000 you borrowed five years ago becomes easier. What you actually repay in real terms is much less than $1,000, since the money you use to repay the lender won't buy nearly what it would have bought five years before.
事实上，通货膨胀对债务人是有利的。在通货膨胀时期，挣出你五年前所借的1000美元变得相对容易了。由于你用于偿还借钱人的钱几乎无法买回五年前能买回的东西，因此你所偿还的钱在实际价值上是大大低于1000美元的。
10) "Debtor" is the person owing money to another, as distinguished from a creditor, a person to whom money is owed. 分别可以译为"债务人"和"债权人"。
While learning the language points, we should also pay attention to some special terms, such as "in inflationary times", 中文即"在通货膨胀时期".
11) What you actually repay in real terms is much less than $1,000, since the money you use to repay the lender won't buy nearly what it would have bought five years before.
由于你用于偿还借钱人的钱几乎无法买回五年前能买回的东西，因此你所偿还的钱在实际价值上是大大低于1000美元的。
"Repay" means "to pay back money that you have borrowed". Its usual expression is "repay somebody something". Besides, "repay" also has the meaning of "reward", as in "repay kindness with kindness" (以恩报恩). "repay" 的名词形式是"repayment"。For example:
- Jenny repaid her parents the $1,000 they lent her. 詹妮偿还了父母借给她的一千美元。
- This company repays hard work with bonuses. 公司对努力工作给予奖励。
Till now we have covered the first part of the whole text. In this part, we get to know some basic information concerning inflation and recession which are the downs in economy.
In the second part, we will see both ups and downs in economy---prosperity and depression. Moreover, we will touch the important term in economy, which is "business cycle". Ok, let's see the first paragraph in the second part.现在开始讲解文章的第二部分――繁荣和萧条，里面将详细谈到business cycle（商业周期），在此之前，我们先来看一下两个相关的经济术语。
Depression（萧条）：a prolonged and severe recession; that part of the business cycle that is marked by a large fall in output, high unemployment, low prices, low business activity, and by low spirits and lack of confidence in the minds of the businessmen and industrialists.
萧条是延长的严重衰退；商业周期中以生产的大幅度下降，高失业，低价格，经济活动低落，工商界人士缺乏信心为特征的一个阶段。
Business cycle(=trade cycle商业周期)：a cycle in time during which business or trade moves from a state of high activity(boom, prosperity) through a running-down period(contraction, downswing, recession, slump, downturn) to a state of low activity(depression, stagnation, trough), then upward again when business or trade improves(expansion, recovery, revival) until there is a return to high activity once more. The whole cycle then begins again.
商业周期又名贸易周期，商业或贸易从高度活动状态（繁荣、兴旺），通过一个下降期（收缩、下降、衰退、不景气、倒退），到达低活动状态（萧条、停滞、呆滞），然后当商业改善时（扩张、复原、复苏）时又上升，直到下一次复归到高活动状态。整个周期于是重新开始。
Business conditions will rarely stand still. Prosperity may be followed by a panic or a crash. Economic expansion gives way to recession. National income, employment, and production fall. Prices and profits decline and people are thrown out of work.
经济环境很少是静止不变的。繁荣之后可能就是一场恐慌，或者是暴跌、垮台。经济膨胀之后会出现经济的不景气。国民收入、就业和生产全部下降。价格和利润下跌，人们一下子丢了饭碗。
Let's discuss some of the words and expressions in the paragraph:
12）Business conditions will rarely stand still.
经济环境很少是静止不变的。
Stand 在此处表示"处于某种状态或情形"，stand still意思是"not move"（静止）。
For example：
- Stand still and let me wipe your face. 站着别动，我来给你擦擦脸。
- The equipment for emergency stands ready to help whenever necessary.
This sentence is the topic sentence of this paragraph; the following three sentences function as the further explanation of the first sentence. 这一句是本段的中心句，接下来的三句都是对这一句的进一步解释。
13）Panic原意是"a sudden, overpowering terror"，在该句中作名词, 表示"a sudden widespread alarm concerning finances"。
常见的短语有：a stock-market panic （股市恐慌）， be in a panic（在惊慌中），be seized with a panic (惊慌失措) 。
Panic还可以作形容词用，例如panic selling of securities（金融大恐慌导致的债券抛售）。也可以作动词用，有时写成panick，既可以作及物动词，也可以作不及物动词。
For instance：
- The thunder panicked the horse. 响雷使马惊慌。
- panic over something 对某事感到惊慌
- The crowd panicked at the sound of the guns. 人们听到枪声感到惊慌。
"Crash" as a noun usually refers to a car accident or a plane accident, but here it is quite similar to "panic" meaning "a sudden unexpected failure". While referring to the stock market, it means "an occasion on which the stocks suddenly lose a lot of value." Crash 通常指汽车相撞或飞机失事。这里指"经济或财政上的突然失败"。在用到描述股市时，表示股价的暴跌。
For example：
- It was not long before a helicopter arrived on scene to rescue the survivors of the plane crash.
- Nobody was prepared for the crash on Black Monday in 1987.
Besides the two words, we should pay special attention to the phrase---give way to. 在这里，"give way to" 即"被某事替代"。
Here are two sentences：
- The storm gave way to bright sunshine. 暴风雨之后出现了灿烂的阳光。
- Economic expansion gives way to recession. 经济的膨胀被不景气代替。
14）National income, employment, and production fall. Prices and profits decline, and people are thrown out of work.
国民收入、就业和生产全部下降。价格和利润下跌，人们一下子丢了饭碗。
In this sentence, detailed phenomena are given to describe the recession mentioned in the previous sentence, which are in sharp contrast to what happens in economic expansion. The two words "fall" and "decline" vividly show the downward trend in this phase.
The word "decline" refers to "the decrease in quantity", as well as to "the becoming worse in quality". "decline" 既表示数量的减少，也表示质量的下降。也可以作名词用。
Let's look at the following sentences：
The price of 14 inches TV set declined from 400 to 320 Yuan each.
The arts of China have not declined in spite of Western influence.
As a verb, it also means "to refuse politely" (婉辞，谢绝), different from "refuse" and "reject".
For example:
- I declined their offer of help. 我谢绝了他们提出的帮助。
- I declined to answer that private question. 我婉言谢绝回答那个私人问题。
Below are the contrast made between the three words---"decline, refuse, and reject."
●decline 指"较正式地、有礼貌地谢绝",
For instance:
He declined the nomination. 他谢绝提名。
●refuse 系普通用语,指"坚决、果断或坦率地拒绝",
For example:
He refused to take the money. 他拒绝接受此款。
●reject指"以否定、敌对的态度而当面拒绝",
For example:
They rejected damaged goods. 他们拒收损坏的货物。
The phrase "throw somebody out of work迫使某人离职" is used in its passive voice to emphasize the helplessness of workers. Sometimes we can also say "throw somebody out of office". The phrase "throw out" itself has a variety of usages, as shown in the examples below.
For example:
- Nixon was thrown out of office, following the Watergate scandal.
- The light throws out strong beams. 这盏灯发射出强烈的光线。
- The committee threw out her proposal. 委员会把她的建议丢在一边。
What we can learn from the first paragraph is far from those stated above. Its most important role is to lead us into understanding the essence of business cycle. More information is given in the next paragraph.